The opposition supporters nervously smoked cigarettes in thekitchen as loud music blared from the empty living room. A student,a businessman, a writer and an artist had planned a victory partybut instead were mourning their defeat.
"It's all over," said the student, a young woman in a sleek blackdress. "Our only option is to leave the country."
After their planned show of strength largely fizzled Feb. 11 inthe face of heavy security for state-sponsored celebrations of theIslamic revolution's 31st anniversary, activists in Iran's politicalopposition have been left demoralized, wondering how to revive amovement that many hoped would lead to a more open society, greaterpersonal freedoms and fairer elections.
Those attending the dissidents' get-together contemplated thereasons for their defeat as they sought to answer the question,"What now?" Some admitted that they had been afraid to join anti-government protests scheduled to coincide with the anniversaryrallies. Others said they had tried to go but faced thousands ofarmed security forces who blocked streets. All agreed that theopposition's failure to make an impact during the state-backeddemonstrations represented a huge blow for the grass-roots movement.Each spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.
Opposition expectations for Feb. 11 had run high, with leaderscalling for a "huge presence." Anti-government Web sites speculatedthat millions of people would turn out to denounce President MahmoudAhmadinejad and his influential supporters among Iran's hard-lineclerics and generals.
But by sentencing protesters to death, blocking Internet sitesand foreign satellite transmissions and deploying thousands ofsecurity forces, authorities managed to stop the opposition fromcommandeering the largest state-sponsored street gathering of theyear. The government's strategy might eventually backfire, but forthe time being, it has served to justify authorities' dismissal ofthe opposition as a meaningless band of foreign-backedcounterrevolutionary rioters.
This security formula will almost certainly be used in thefuture, analysts said, thwarting the opposition's signature tacticof turning official street celebrations into anti-governmentrallies. "It was impossible to join up with other protesters," thestudent at the party said as she tried to reconstruct what wentwrong. "There were just too many security forces."
She took a puff from her 10th cigarette that evening. "We wereall supposed to meet up at the main square where Ahmadinejad wouldspeak. There, we would all bring out green ribbons, to show how manywe were," she said.
Instead, she found small pockets of protesters in side alleys,not knowing where to go or what to do. "We ended up with a couplethousand people running from the security forces," she said. "Ourmovement needs new tactics, but I have no idea what we should do."
On state television this week, officials lauded the "tens ofmillions" who attended the official rallies, praising them "forsupporting the Islamic establishment."
Meanwhile, former presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi andMehdi Karroubi, the opposition's main leaders, charged that thegovernment imposed "a complete militarization" during theanniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution. They criticized the"dominance of an atmosphere of terror and fear in different parts ofthe country."
The two promised to inform the Iranian people about "thedifferent means of peacefully reclaiming their rights," but they didnot elaborate, the opposition Sahamnews Web site reported.
"I hope they can come up with new strategies, but I have no ideawhat those should be," said an influential blogger who is a memberof an unofficial opposition think tank made up of Web activists. Hesuggested turning the first anniversary of the disputed June 12presidential election into a day of protest.
"But I guess the government would just repeat what they donormally: declare each protest illegal and flood the streets withsecurity forces," he said.
"In the end, the street is the only place where we can show howmany people we are, but few people are ready to go to prison or gethurt," he said.
During recent demonstrations, he recalled, his friends would callhim from their homes and offices while he was running from thepolice.
"If they are not ready to sacrifice anything, why should I be?"he asked. "My personal strategy out of this mess is to apply for avisa for Canada."
Political analysts say the opposition movement is partly to blamefor its plight. "The fact that there is no single leader can, attimes, be helpful," said Abbas Abdi, a former journalist who haslong advocated more personal freedom in Iran. "But there are momentsthat one person should say: This is how we will do this, whether youlike it or not."
The opposition movement now is "highly uncoordinated andunorganized," Abdi said, adding that only with unity can it besuccessful.
At the party, there was consensus on one issue. "Just because ourprotest failed, that doesn't mean we have lost our anger," thestudent said. "We have a very simple demand: freedom. But I don'tsee how we can get it."
erdbrinkt@washpost.com
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